Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-Prognose
>= 100 95%Führend unter 7 Optionen
Prognostiker
16
Fragetyp
multiple choice
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
7d-Änderung
0.0 pts
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 11 Stunden
Veraltet2. Juni 24, 20:04 UTC2. Juli 27, 05:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will >30,000 people die in a US civil war before 2043?
Manifold MarketsWill more than 10,000 people die as a result of Trump's mass deportations?
Manifold MarketsWill more people die in (major) plane crashes than (major) train crashes in 2026?
Manifold MarketsHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 8, 2026?
KalshiWhere will it rain on Sep 8, 2026?
KalshiHighest temperature in New York City on Sep 8, 2026?
KalshiRegeln
This is an attempt to gauge whether Arizona will become uninhabitable due to climate change within the next decade, as predicted by this tweet:
- [tweet]Resolution will be based on my best estimate from credible reporting, Wikipedia articles, etc. If multiple credible sources are available, I'll resolve based on the geometric mean of available numbers.
- I'll add more answers if trading prices indicate that's appropriate.
- Ditto creating more comparable questions for different dates.
- See also: @/EvanDaniel/how-many-people-will-die-of-extreme
Offene Märkte
WeatherKALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 8, 2026?
- 90° or above+68.0pt95.2%
- 88° to 89°-22.0pt1%
- 84° to 85°-8.0pt1%
+3 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 586.176 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 568.367,7 €
KALSHIWhere will it rain on Sep 8, 2026?
- New Orleans+48.0pt99%
- Houston+70.0pt99%
- Minneapolis+17.0pt99%
+19 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
KALSHIHighest temperature in New York City on Sep 8, 2026?
- 80° to 81°+53.0pt95.2%
- 79° or below-3.0pt1%
- 82° to 83°-44.0pt1%
+3 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
KALSHIHighest temperature in Austin on Sep 8, 2026?
- 102° to 103°+55.0pt95.2%
- 100° to 101°-47.0pt1%
- 98° to 99°-9.0pt1%
+3 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
KALSHIHighest temperature in Miami on Sep 8, 2026?
- 92° to 93°+47.0pt95.2%
- 90° to 91°-34.0pt1%
- 88° to 89°-6.0pt1%
+3 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
FORECASTEXWill the highest temperature in Los Angeles (LA)(LAX)(KLAX) exceed 85 F on September 8, 2026?
- Yes86%
- No14%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 108.240,4 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 108.240,4 €
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles (LA)(LAX)(KLAX) exceed 86 F on September 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Munich on September 9?
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles (LA)(LAX)(KLAX) exceed 87 F on September 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Chicago on Sep 8, 2026?
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles (LA)(LAX)(KLAX) exceed 89 F on September 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Chengdu on September 9?
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles (LA)(LAX)(KLAX) exceed 88 F on September 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in San Francisco on Sep 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Phoenix on Sep 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Houston on Sep 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Minneapolis on Sep 8, 2026?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für How many people will die of extreme heat in Arizona in 2026??
- Manifold Markets bewertet >= 100 mit 95% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird How many people will die of extreme heat in Arizona in 2026? entschieden?
- How many people will die of extreme heat in Arizona in 2026? soll am 2. Juli 2027 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird How many people will die of extreme heat in Arizona in 2026? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: This is an attempt to gauge whether Arizona will become uninhabitable due to climate change within the next decade, as predicted by this tweet: