Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenGut kalibriertAktuelle Community-Prognose>= 300 75%Führend unter 8 Optionen
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11
Fragetyp
multiple choice
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Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
7d-Änderung
0.0 pts
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Aktualisiert vor 5 Stunden
Veraltet31. Mai 24, 04:36 UTC2. Juli 34, 05:59 UTC
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This is an attempt to gauge whether Arizona will become uninhabitable due to climate change within the next decade, as predicted by this tweet:
- [tweet]Resolution will be based on my best estimate from credible reporting, Wikipedia articles, etc. If multiple credible sources are available, I'll resolve based on the geometric mean of available numbers.
- I'll add more answers if trading prices indicate that's appropriate.
- Ditto creating more comparable questions for different dates.
- See also: @/EvanDaniel/how-many-people-will-die-of-extreme-nunsfre4wz
