Aktuelle Community-Prognose
Nein 88.7%
Prognostiker
3
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 21 Stunden
Veraltet11. Mai 26, 22:16 UTC1. Feb. 28, 00:00 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will "The paper that killed deep learning theory" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsWill "Dissolving the Deep Learning Sample Efficienc..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsWill transformer architectures lose their dominant position in deep learning before 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill "Deep learning as program synthesis" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsWho is Dwarkesh's upcoming "biggest guest yet"?
Manifold MarketsWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
PolymarketRegeln
As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts.
- Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2026 Review resolves in February 2028.
- This market will resolve to 100% if the post Maybe I was too harsh on deep learning theory (three days ago) is one of the top fifty posts of the 2026 Review, and 0% otherwise.
- The market was initialized to 14%.
