Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 94%
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 18 Stunden
Veraltet20. Jan. 26, 07:01 UTC31. Dez. 28, 23:59 UTC
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Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will Israel annex any territory by which date?
PolymarketWill Israel annex West Bank territory before 2027?
PolymarketWill Israel annex any part of Lebanon before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Israel annex a part of Gaza in the next 3 years (Nov 17 2027)?
Manifold MarketsWill Turkey annex any portion of Syria by EOY2030? (even by establishing an informal gvmt?)
Manifold MarketsWill Israel and Syria normalize relations during Trump's term?
KalshiRegeln
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if Israel formally annexes territory comprising at least 15% of Syria's total land area by December 31, 2029.
- For resolution purposes, "annexation" means Israel passes legislation or makes an official declaration claiming sovereignty over the territory, similar to the 1981 Golan Heights Law or the 2019 Trump administration recognition.
- Syria's total area is approximately 185,180 square kilometers, making 15% equal to roughly 27,777 square kilometers.
- Israel currently occupies over 1,700 square kilometers of territory (the 1,200 sq km Golan Heights plus over 500 sq km of additional southwestern Syrian territory), representing approximately 0.9% of Syria's total area.
- Resolution will be determined by official Israeli government statements, legislation, or international recognition of annexation.