Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will Gwern publish a standalone book in print form by December 31, 2026??

Manifold Markets bewertet No mit 87.3% (Stand: 24. Oktober 2026).

Will Gwern publish a standalone book in print form by December 31, 2026?

Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriert

Aktuelle Community-Prognose

Nein 87.3%

Prognostiker

Fragetyp

binary

Methodik

Play-money forecasting platform

Quellentyp

Prognose

Marktdaten

Aktualisiert vor 1 Stunde

Verzogert

18. Sept. 24, 16:33 UTC1. Jan. 27, 04:59 UTC

Trends

Ergebnis24hWahrscheinlichkeit

Regeln

Resolution Criteria:

The market will resolve as "Yes" if:
Gwern publishes a standalone book available in print form before December 31, 2026
The book is authored solely by Gwern and is not part of a collection including works from multiple authors
The market will resolve as "No" if:
Gwern does not publish a standalone book in print form by December 31, 2026