Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-Prognose
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Aktualisiert vor 6 Stunden
Veraltet29. Dez. 25, 21:03 UTC1. März 28, 23:59 UTC
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Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
If Gavin Newsom is the Democratic presidential nominee in 2028, who will be the Vice Presidential nominee?
Manifold MarketsWill Gavin Newsom lead the 2028 Dem Nominee betting on?
Manifold MarketsWill there be an anti-AI terrorist incident by 2028?
Manifold MarketsWhen will Gavin Newsom announce his presidential candidacy?
KalshiWill Gavin Newsom announce Presidential run by which date?
PolymarketGavin Newsom or his wife federally charged by December 31, 2026?
PolymarketRegeln
The resolution is based on my subjective assessment of his public statements, and I will not trade in this market.
- Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if, in my judgment, Newsom uses strongly anti-AI rhetoric in public remarks on social media or in speeches and debates before March 2, 2028. "Strongly anti-AI" means rhetoric that goes substantially beyond his current position of supporting responsible AI development—such as calling for major restrictions on AI development, characterizing AI as primarily a threat rather than an opportunity, or advocating for policies that would significantly constrain the AI industry.
- Casual criticism of specific AI applications or calls for narrow guardrails would not qualify, and the positions he takes must be consistent throughout multiple remarks (an offhand comment once wouldn't count).
- Newsom stated in October 2025 that after the 2026 midterm elections, he would give "serious thought" to running in 2028. 55% of Democrats and Democratic-leaning Independents say they'd consider voting for Newsom in a 2028 Democratic primary, making him a leading contender.
- Newsom's current AI stance emphasizes responsible development rather than opposition.
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Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will Gavin Newsom be strongly anti-AI before March 2, 2028??
- Manifold Markets bewertet No mit 56% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird Will Gavin Newsom be strongly anti-AI before March 2, 2028? entschieden?
- Will Gavin Newsom be strongly anti-AI before March 2, 2028? soll am 1. März 2028 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Will Gavin Newsom be strongly anti-AI before March 2, 2028? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: The resolution is based on my subjective assessment of his public statements, and I will not trade in this market.