Wird Donald Trump sterben oder schwer erkranken, bevor seine Amtszeit endet?
PolitikOne-OffUS-PolitikWahl2J
Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-Prognose
Nein 84%
Nein 84%Prognostiker
978
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 15 Stunden
Veraltet12. Nov. 24, 19:10 UTC19. Jan. 29, 21:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will Donald Trump die or become seriously ill before the end of his term?
Manifold MarketsWill Donald Trump die during his term?
Manifold MarketsWill Biden or Trump die from natural causes before the end of the next presidential term?
Manifold MarketsIn which year will Donald Trump die?
Manifold Markets2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
KalshiWhich party will win the U.S. House?
KalshiRegeln
The market resolves “Yes” if Donald Trump either passes away or becomes so ill that he is officially unable to continue in his role, leading to someone else taking over his responsibilities.
- I won’t be betting on this market.
- Update 2025-08-31 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - A temporary transfer of power will not resolve Yes.
- The intent is a permanent inability to serve—e.g., death or an official determination resulting in someone else taking over his responsibilities.
- Update 2025-09-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Health-motivated resignation by Trump will resolve to Yes; no 25th Amendment invocation is required.
