Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseJoe Biden 40%
Prognostiker
25
Fragetyp
multiple choice
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
7d-Änderung
0.0 pts
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 11 Stunden
Veraltet18. Juni 24, 13:00 UTC19. Jan. 29, 22:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will Trump survive through end-of-term (Jan 20, 2029) without succumbing to natural causes/old age.
Manifold MarketsWill Ray Kurzweil die of natural causes?
Manifold MarketsWill Larry Ellison die of natural causes?
Manifold MarketsWill Aella die of natural causes?
Manifold MarketsWill Republicans win any Senate or Governor's Election in a Biden-Trump state?
PolymarketLula to finish his presidential term?
FutuurRegeln
Both Biden and Trump get criticized for being quite old.
- This, among other problems, brings an increased risk for death from natural causes.
- The male life expectancy in the USA is 73.5 years, an age they both passed already.
- What is the chance they pass away from natural causes before the end of the next presidential term?
- This market resolves per person to YES once they die of natural causes, NO if they die from non natural causes, and NO if they are alive on the end of the next presidential term (20th of January 2029), whichever comes first.
