Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 93.5%
Prognostiker
13
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 3 Stunden
Veraltet3. Jan. 26, 10:20 UTC31. Dez. 29, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will China become the #2 global art market in 2026?
PolymarketWill China become more authoritarian in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Gavin Newsom ever become the Democratic nominee for president?
Manifold MarketsWill AOC Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez ever become the Democratic nominee for president?
Manifold MarketsNothing Ever Happens: 2026
PolymarketXi meets with Korean leader Lee Jae-Myung by which date?
PolymarketRegeln
Resolution Criteria
- This market resolves YES if China transitions to a liberal democracy by December 31, 2029.
- A liberal democracy is defined as a system with: free and fair multi-party elections for national leadership, freedom of speech and assembly, an independent judiciary, and meaningful political opposition.
- Resolution will be determined by reference to Freedom House's annual Freedom in the World reports, which assess political rights and civil liberties.
- The market resolves YES only if Freedom House rates China as "Free" (indicating a liberal democracy) by the deadline.
- If China remains "Partly Free" or "Not Free," the market resolves NO.
Offene Märkte
Politics
KALSHINH-01 Democratic nominee?
- Stefany Shaheen+81.8pt100%
- Maura Sullivan-81.6pt0%
- Carleigh Beriont-2.7pt0%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 957.304,7 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 760.707,9 €
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17.2%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16.2%
- Gavin Newsom-1.0pt13.1%
+45 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 183,7 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-3.0pt52.5%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+2.9pt45.5%
- Renan Santos1%
+16 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+2.0pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-1.3pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.6pt3%
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio+0.2pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 603,2 Mio. €
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen-0.2pt37.1%
- Édouard Philippe32%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon12.4%
+38 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- Rhode Island Democratic Governor nominee?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- NJ-07 House winner?
- IA-01 House winner?
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will China become democratic before 2030??
- Manifold Markets bewertet No mit 94% (Stand: 9. September 2026).
- Wann wird Will China become democratic before 2030? entschieden?
- Will China become democratic before 2030? soll am 31. Dezember 2029 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Will China become democratic before 2030? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: Resolution Criteria