Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 97%
Prognostiker
18
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 4 Stunden
Veraltet12. Sept. 26, 20:13 UTC31. Dez. 27, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will Caroline Ellison be arrested before 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill Caroline Ellison resume posting on Tumblr when she is released from prison?
Manifold MarketsCaroline Ellison still working for Manifund by EOY?
Manifold MarketsWill SBF, Ryan Salame, or Caroline Ellison place a trade on a prediction market within a year after their release?
Manifold MarketsAmelia Earhart’s plane found by December 31, 2026?
PolymarketTSA avg check-ins from Oct 5 to 11, 2026?
KalshiRegeln
Austin is of course a founder of Manifold and author of such bangers as “In defense of SBF.”
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if, before January 1, 2028 (12:00 AM UTC), Austin Chen publicly expresses regret regarding his decision to hire Caroline Ellison at Manifund.
- Definition of "publicly regret": Austin Chen must explicitly state in a public forum that hiring Caroline Ellison was a "mistake," "error in judgment," or that he "regrets" the decision, or use substantially equivalent phrasing conveying that he wishes he had not hired her.
- Eligible Sources: Public posts, replies, or comments by Austin Chen on X/Twitter (e.g., via his handle @akrolsmir), his Substack newsletter The Fox Says, Manifold Markets, or direct quotes attributed to him in reputable news publications (such as Bloomberg or Business Insider).
- If Caroline Ellison is terminated or resigns from Manifund without Austin Chen publicly stating that the original hiring decision was a mistake or source of regret, this market will not resolve YES.