Will at least one human be cured of a prion disease by EOY 2045?
One-OffGesundheit & MedizinWissenschaft19JManifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseJa 77.9%
Prognostiker
37
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 47 Minuten
Verzogert28. Apr. 24, 11:11 UTC31. Dez. 45, 19:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will there be a prion disease outbreak in the United States before 2028 that kills more than 24 people?
Manifold MarketsWill there be an FDA approved cure for Parkinson's Disease by EOY 2032?
Manifold MarketsWill there be an FDA approved cure for ALS (Lou Gehrig Disease) by EOY 2032?
Manifold MarketsWill there be an FDA approved cure for Huntington's disease by EOY 2032?
Manifold MarketsWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
KalshiWill WHO classify the current hantavirus outbreak as a Public Health Emergency of International Concern by end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsRegeln
Currently all prion diseases are considered fatal and incurable.
- I'll resolve yes if, by the end of 31 December 2045, there's a human being who was previously infected with prion disease (previously fatal and incurable) and has been cured of it, according to widespread medical consensus.
- Even if there are lingering side effects, I will resolve YES if the consensus is that death of said disease is no longer inevitable for that person.
- ("Inevitable" as in "the person is certain to die of said disease unless something else kills them first")
- If a human has definitely been cured but the relevant medical intervention is hard or impossible to replicate, it's enough to resolve YES anyway.
- Something like the Berlin patient (but for a prion disease instead of HIV) would trigger a YES resolution.
