Will Argentina successfully regain sovereignty over the Falklands by the end of 2027?
LateinamerikaOne-Off1J
Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenGut kalibriertAktuelle Community-Prognose
Nein 97.2%
Nein 97.2%Prognostiker
27
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 19 Stunden
Veraltet24. Jan. 24, 18:29 UTC1. Jan. 28, 04:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will the US recognize Argentine sovereignty over the Falklands?
KalshiWill the US recognise Argentine sovereignty over the Falklands in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the US recognize Argentine sovereignty over the Falklands before 2027?
FutuurIf Argentina successfully invades the Falkland Islands before 2040, will the UK regain control of them within a year?
Manifold MarketsWill Argentina start another war over the Falklands before April 2027?
Manifold MarketsUK announces transfer of Falklands to Argentina in 2026?
PolymarketRegeln
Milei's new administration has reiterated his desire to regain the Falklands as Argentine possessions (spanish announcement here).
- Given he's outright ruled out the use of force (as he correctly observed that didn't go well last time), he's announced he intends to explore "all diplomatic channels."
- This market resolves YES if the Falklands have returned to Argentine possession by the close date, or if an official agreement has been ratified between Britain and Argentina about transferring sovereignty of the islands to Argentina on some fixed timeline.
- This remains a YES even if there are some caveats to that sovereignty, so long as the international community recognizes the islands as being Argentine territory.
- I reserve the right to adjudicate edge cases of this sort by my own sole opinion.
- It resolves NO if the Falklands remain a British possession at market close, or if some other country has taken them over.