Aktuelle Community-Prognose
Nein 81.1%
Prognostiker
42
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 9 Stunden
Veraltet23. Sept. 24, 16:56 UTC1. Jan. 28, 04:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will Apple stock (AAPL) hit $500 before $50?
Manifold MarketsNVDA stock price exceeds AAPL stock price before January 1, 2027
Manifold MarketsWill GOOG have the largest market cap by EOY 2026?
Manifold MarketsNVIDIA (NVDA) all-time high by which date?
PolymarketInstacart gross transaction value in Q3
KalshiOpenAI vs Meta — higher valuation on December 31?
PolymarketRegeln
Is there an AI bubble, and if so how big is it? Let's find out using the actual stock market.
- Resolves YES if and only if any 4 of the mentioned stocks (AAPL, AMZN, ASML, GOOG, META, MSFT, NVDA, and TSM) trade at 40% or less of their split-adjusted historical peak between now and Dec 31, 2027, inclusive.
- For example, if ASML goes up to a new peak of $1200 and then falls back down to $480 a share, then ASML will count as one the 4 stocks.
- The 4 stocks need not all be below 40% at the same time.
- If any of the stocks are renamed, the market will continue track the price of the stock under its new name.
- If any are acquired by another publicly traded company, the market will track the proportion of that other company's stock which the original stock represents.