Will another UN member state leader holds any other UN state leader or former leader in captivity in 2026?
US-PolitikOne-OffLateinamerika2MonManifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertWarnung zur DatenqualitätQuelldaten beeinträchtigt
Daten vom 26.10.2026, 11:04 UTC · Richtlinie pm-quality-4
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Verzogert5. Jan. 26, 02:05 UTC31. Dez. 26, 23:59 UTC
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- Update 2026-01-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market resolves based on pairwise combinations of captors and captives:
- If the same leader holds multiple different leaders captive, each new pairing counts as a separate instance
- If a successor to a previously captured leader is held (and sufficiently well-established), that counts as a new instance
- Holding former leaders (e.g., former U.S. presidents) also counts
- Capturing multiple subordinates or acting officials under one regime does not clearly satisfy the criteria
