Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 85.8%
Prognostiker
3
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 1 Stunde
Verzogert28. März 26, 04:16 UTC1. Jan. 29, 00:00 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will @firstuserhere author a bestselling book by the end of 2027? (10000 Mana subsidy)
Manifold MarketsWill the New York Times positively cover Allan Lichtman’s 13 Keys prediction in 2028?
Manifold MarketsNew York Times wins OpenAI lawsuit?
KalshiWill Sam Bankman-Fried author a book that will be an New York Times bestseller before 2075?
Manifold MarketsAble to read an article for a very small charge on New York Times by end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsWhen will OpenAI release a personal AI agent?
KalshiRegeln
Resolves YES if a book appears on any New York Times bestseller list (fiction, nonfiction, or any subcategory) where an AI system is credited as the primary author, by December 31, 2028.
- What counts:
- The book must appear on the official NYT bestseller list (nytimes.com/books/best-sellers)
- The AI must be credited as author or primary co-author on the cover/title page
- Ghost-written by AI but credited to a human does NOT count
- A human editor/collaborator is fine as long as AI is credited as author
