Aktuelle Community-Prognose
Nein 81.2%
Prognostiker
8
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 17 Stunden
Veraltet31. Mai 26, 05:28 UTC31. Dez. 27, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will the US restrict US companies from using Chinese open models
Manifold MarketsWill Meta censor its future open weights models according to Chinese-developed techniques?
Manifold MarketsWill Anthropic sign the Open Weights and American AI Leadership letter?
KalshiWill Anthropic release an open-weights model in 2026?
Manifold MarketsBest Chinese AI Company end of September?
PolymarketSecond-Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
PolymarketRegeln
Resolves YES if, as displayed on December 31, 2027, the highest-ranked US-developed open-weights model on the LMArena text leaderboard (default "Overall" text view, lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text) is ranked above every China-developed open-weights model.
- Resolves NO otherwise (including if no US open-weights model is listed).
- - Open-weights model: weights publicly downloadable to self-host.
- API-only/proprietary models do not count. - US-developed labs include Google (Gemma), OpenAI (gpt-oss), Meta (Llama), NVIDIA (Nemotron), Microsoft (Phi), AI2 (OLMo), and any other US-headquartered org. - China-developed labs include DeepSeek, Alibaba (Qwen), Moonshot (Kimi), Zhipu (GLM), and any other China-headquartered org. - Comparison is by leaderboard position among open-weights models only; only the standing on the resolution date counts (briefly leading earlier does not). - Source: LMArena text leaderboard.
- If it is discontinued or materially changes format, this resolves via the closest equivalent public, community-vote-based general-purpose LLM leaderboard, at the creator's reasonable discretion.
Offene Märkte
ChinaPOLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No-0.1pt96%
- Yes+0.1pt4%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 35,3 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 100.050,2 €
POLYMARKETXi Jinping out before 2027?
- No+0.2pt96%
- Yes-0.2pt4%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 11,3 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 38.741,3 €
POLYMARKETHighest temperature in Beijing on September 9?
- 26°C+18.0pt56.1%
- 27°C-3.0pt19.6%
- 25°C-3.5pt15.9%
+8 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETChina x Philippines military clash before 2027?
- No-0.5pt72.3%
- Yes+0.5pt27.7%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 356.323,2 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 13.462,8 €
POLYMARKETWill Xi Jinping visit US by which date?
- October 31+1.6pt98%
- December 31+1.6pt97%
- September 3095%
+3 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
- No+1.0pt89.1%
- Yes-1.0pt10.9%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 2,7 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 11.045,3 €
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Nothing Ever Happens: 2026
- Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?
- How many tropical cyclones will make landfall in China during 2026?
- Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?
- Kinmen County Magistrate Election Winner
- Will Xi Jinping visit the United States?
- Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?
- China x Japan military clash before 2027?
- Second-Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will a US open-weights LLM outrank every Chinese open-weights LLM on LMArena at the end of 2027??
- Manifold Markets bewertet No mit 81% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird Will a US open-weights LLM outrank every Chinese open-weights LLM on LMArena at the end of 2027? entschieden?
- Will a US open-weights LLM outrank every Chinese open-weights LLM on LMArena at the end of 2027? soll am 31. Dezember 2027 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Will a US open-weights LLM outrank every Chinese open-weights LLM on LMArena at the end of 2027? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: Resolves YES if, as displayed on December 31, 2027, the highest-ranked US-developed open-weights model on the LMArena text leaderboard (default "Overall" text view, lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text) is ranked above every China-developed open-weights model.