Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenGut kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 63.3%
Prognostiker
108
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 10 Stunden
Veraltet1. Juli 24, 09:50 UTC2. Jan. 60, 07:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will Sonia Sotomayor still be on the Supreme Court at the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the next Non Republican president abolish ICE?
Manifold MarketsWill the next Non Republican president abolish ICE?
Manifold MarketsWill the next non Republican president remove Trump's name from the Kennedy Center in their first year?
Manifold MarketsWhich Senate Swing States will Republicans win? (Build Your Map)
PolymarketWho will control the House?
KalshiRegeln
This resolves positive if a future Republican president chooses a replacement for Sonia Sotomayor.
- For example, if Trump wins the coming election, Sotomayor leaves the court in 2026, and Trump chooses her replacement, it will resolve positive.
- It resolves negative if a Democratic president chooses Sotomayor's replacement.
- It will also resolve negative if something radical happens to the structure of the Supreme Court or partisan politics that makes this question incoherent.
- This market only resolves once a nominee has been confirmed.
- If a nominee isn't confirmed, for example because the President and Senate can't agree, it will remain open until the President and Senate do agree on someone, and the party of the President whose nominee was eventually confirmed will be used to resolve this market.