Will >5% of an FTX-implicated political donation be clawed back, from >2 politicians or political campaigns, by end of 2026?
One-OffPolitikRegulierungKrypto2MonManifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenGut kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 58%
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Veraltet26. Nov. 22, 21:16 UTC1. Jan. 27, 07:59 UTC
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Will >5% of an FTX grant be clawed back, from >2 individual workers, by end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill >5% of an FTX grant be clawed back, from >2 individual workers, by end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhat % of FTX money will be clawed back from grantees, resolves to my best guess?
Manifold MarketsWill >5% of >2 FTX political donations received before the 90-day bankruptcy period be clawed back?
Manifold MarketsClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
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PolymarketRegeln
Resolves YES if at the end of 2026, there was any successful or still-being-prosecuted attempt to claw back, from more than 2 campaigns or party treasuries or individual politicians, more than 5% of the funds they received from Sam Bankman-Fried or other FTX executives.
- (This is intended to capture the spirit of "there were not just a couple of exceptional cases" and "there wasn't just a go-try-it letter with no chance of making it successfully through the legal system" and "they didn't just settle for 5%".
- Resolves YES if there's a protracted battle still going on into 2027.)
