Aktuelle Community-Prognose
Ja 88.5%
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53
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Aktualisiert vor 13 Stunden
Veraltet2. Nov. 22, 10:45 UTC1. Jan. 30, 05:59 UTC
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Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will any USA state ban self driving cars by the end of 2029?
Manifold MarketsWill fully autonomous (level 5) self-driving cars be available in a major US city before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill self-driving cars become the primary mode of transportation in major US cities by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Tesla sell a Cybercab for 30k or less in 2026?
PolymarketWhich AI company will have the best coding model at the end of 2026?
KalshiNext Prime Minister of Romania?
PolymarketRegeln
This resolves based on my own experience of how many cars I see driving around in whatever U.S. city I am living in (or have most recently lived in, on the off chance I'm not living in the U.S.).
- I will go outside to the street and wait for a few cars to pass.
- I will try to look in the window or look at the model of the car to try to figure out if the car is driving itself.
- Once I feel confident about whether more or less than 20% of cars I see are self-driving, I will resolve this either YES or NO.
- In response to a question "Self-driving" means an SAE level 3,4, or 5.
- The self-driving system has to be engaged though - a car that is capable of SAE level 3 but which is actively being driven by a human won't count.
Offene Märkte
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- Aryna Sabalenka72.6%
- Linda Noskova27.4%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 15.595,4 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 1,9 Mio. €
KALSHIUS Open Men's Singles Winner
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Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will at least 20% of cars I see be self-driving by 2030??
- Manifold Markets bewertet Yes mit 89% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird Will at least 20% of cars I see be self-driving by 2030? entschieden?
- Will at least 20% of cars I see be self-driving by 2030? soll am 1. Januar 2030 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Will at least 20% of cars I see be self-driving by 2030? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: This resolves based on my own experience of how many cars I see driving around in whatever U.S. city I am living in (or have most recently lived in, on the off chance I'm not living in the U.S.).