Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-Prognose
SpaceX 56%Führend unter 3 Optionen
SpaceX 56%Prognostiker
10
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Aktualisiert vor 13 Stunden
Veraltet23. Apr. 26, 10:54 UTC30. Dez. 32, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will Blue Origin land an uncrewed Blue Moon MK1 lander on the moon before SpaceX lands an uncrewed Starship?
Manifold MarketsWill Blue Origin land on the moon before SpaceX?
KalshiWill SpaceX or Blue Origin conduct or be contracted to conduct a private lunar landing before 2035?
Manifold MarketsWill a state which is not the US contract SpaceX or Blue Origin to conduct a lunar landing before 2035?
Manifold MarketsWhich crewed vehicle will be next to land humans on the Moon?
Manifold MarketsAnother Blue Origin rocket explodes by Oct 31?
PolymarketRegeln
As of April 2026, SpaceX and the named outcome are NASA's two contracted Human Landing System (HLS) providers for the Artemis program.
- SpaceX holds the Artemis III contract (Starship HLS, mid-2027 target, now reconfigured as an Earth-orbit test).
- the named outcome holds the Artemis V contract (Blue Moon Mark 2, ~2030).
- In October 2025, then-acting NASA Administrator Sean Duffy reopened the Artemis III landing contract amid Starship HLS delays, and the named outcome is reportedly developing a "Mark 1.5" crewed variant based on Blue Moon Mark 1 that could potentially fly sooner.
- This market resolves based on which company's lander first carries at least one human to a soft landing on the lunar surface, whether on a NASA Artemis mission, a commercial mission, or any other flight.
- Resolution criteria: