Which major technology company will make the most significant quantum computing breakthrough by 2030?
TechnikWissenschaft3JManifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertWarnung zur DatenqualitätQuelldaten beeinträchtigt
Daten vom 26.10.2026, 08:37 UTC · Richtlinie pm-quality-4
Aktuelle Community-PrognoseIBM 26.5%Führend unter 10 Optionen
Prognostiker
6
Fragetyp
multiple choice
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
7d-Änderung
0.0 pts
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 2 Stunden
Veraltet8. Apr. 25, 08:58 UTC1. Jan. 30, 00:00 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will Quantum computing break RSA encryption before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill quantum computing achieve practical advantage in cryptography before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill a quantum computing CEO go to jail before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill quantum computing be commonly used in commercial applications by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill ANOTHER millennium prize problem be solved in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhen will the first useful quantum computer be developed?
KalshiRegeln
This market predicts which major technology company will achieve the most significant breakthrough in quantum computing by December 31, 2029.
- A "significant breakthrough" is defined as: 1.
- Development of a quantum computer with >1000 logical qubits, OR 2.
- First demonstration of quantum advantage for a commercially relevant problem, OR 3.
- Development of a quantum-resistant cryptography standard that becomes widely adopted.
- The breakthrough must be publicly announced and independently verified by at least two academic institutions.
