Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-Prognose
Before 2033 77.6%Führend unter 7 Optionen
Before 2033 77.6%Prognostiker
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multiple choice
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Prognose
7d-Änderung
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Aktualisiert vor 13 Stunden
Veraltet24. Dez. 25, 08:58 UTC1. Jan. 34, 07:59 UTC
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Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will Level 5 self driving cars be available by (YEAR)?
Manifold MarketsWill fully autonomous (level 5) self-driving cars be available in a major US city before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill a fully autonomous, Level 5 self driving car be available for purchase in the US by the year 2040?
Manifold MarketsOnce level 5 self-driving cars are available to the public, will any pre-2024 Tesla model be capable of it?
Manifold MarketsBTC price on Oct 25, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
KalshiBTC price on Oct 30, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
KalshiRegeln
The impetus for this market is asking whether Elon Musk is correct in rejecting lidar sensors for self-driving.
- Did the Tesla robotaxis in Austin in summer 2025 count?
- No, even if we decide those were level 4, we need wider deployment (see next FAQ item) than that to count for this market.
- How wide is "widely deployed"?
- 100 million autonomous miles, with zero fatalities that are the fault of the AI.
- Is this specific to Tesla?
