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Daten vom 26.10.2026, 02:39 UTC · Richtlinie pm-quality-4
Aktuelle Community-PrognoseNever announces a 2028 presidential run. 51.9%Führend unter 10 Optionen
Prognostiker
7
Fragetyp
multiple choice
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
7d-Änderung
0.0 pts
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 6 Stunden
Veraltet19. Jan. 26, 17:32 UTC30. Dez. 28, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will this Democratic ticket win the 2028 Presidential Election?: Mark Kelly-Gretchen Whitmer
Manifold MarketsWhen will Gavin Newsom announce his run for presidency for the 2028 election?
Manifold MarketsWhen will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez announce her run for presidency for the 2028 election?
Manifold MarketsWhen will Josh Shapiro announce his run for presidency for the 2028 election?
Manifold MarketsWill the Democrats sweep the Senate, House, and Presidency in the 2028 election?
ForecastExWill the Democrats win the Senate, Democrats win the House, and Republicans win the Presidency in the 2028 election?
ForecastExRegeln
Resolution criteria
- For each answer, resolve YES if Kelly makes an official public announcement that he is running for U.S. president in the 2028 election on or before that answer’s cutoff; resolve NO otherwise. “before [date]” is treated as on or before 11:59:59 pm Eastern Time on that date.
- e.g. if the announcement occurs on Dec 15, 2027, the "the named outcome" AND "the named outcome" options resolve YES.
- Acceptable evidence (use the earliest timestamp across sources):
- FEC Form 2 (Statement of Candidacy) filed for a 2028 presidential run.
- An explicit statement by Kelly or an authorized spokesperson that he is running for president in 2028 (e.g., on his verified social accounts or official site).
