Warnung zur DatenqualitätQuelldaten beeinträchtigt
Daten vom 26.10.2026, 01:50 UTC · Richtlinie pm-quality-4
Aktuelle Community-Prognose
After June 2028 48.1%Führend unter 3 Optionen
Prognostiker
37
Fragetyp
multiple choice
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
7d-Änderung
0.0 pts
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 10 Stunden
Veraltet7. Juli 26, 04:56 UTC1. Juli 28, 07:00 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will it take <=12 months for open-source AI forecasting to go from consistently worse than humans to broadly superhuman?
Manifold MarketsPMF or Die (AI Forecasting Edition)
Manifold MarketsHow comfident do you think one should be that their crush doesn't like them back so that it's better not to confess ?
Manifold MarketsWill a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028?
Manifold MarketsWhat will be the outcome of the 2026 New Zealand General Election?
Manifold MarketsWhich of these Language Models will beat me at chess?
Manifold MarketsRegeln
Currently, in July 2026, the top forecasting bots are slightly below or equal to top humans.
- Extrapolating their progress, they should leave humans in the dust between 1 and 2 years from now.
- Unless the best humans are already near the theoretical maximum of how good even a superintelligence can be at forecasting.
- In which case AI forecasting is about to plateau.
- This is a big deal because Sayash Kapoor and Arvind Narayanan (the "AI as Normal Technology" (AINT) folks) have set this as one of their lines in the sand.
- They claim that domains like chess and protein folding (and maybe math) are the exception and that in most domains, humans are already near the limit of how high performance can get.
