What will happen in the world in the 2030s
32.9 Pkt. (24h)ChinaOne-OffKITechnikGesundheit & MedizinRaumfahrt13JManifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseThe world population exceeds 8.5 billion 82.9%+32.9ptFührend unter 8 Optionen
Prognostiker
2
Fragetyp
multiple choice
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
7d-Änderung
+32.9 pts
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 11 Stunden
Veraltet11. Okt. 26, 08:34 UTC31. Dez. 39, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
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PolymarketRegeln
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves each option independently to YES if the specified event occurs or condition is met between January 1, 2030, and December 31, 2039, and NO otherwise.
- Standard resolutions will be determined using official data from recognized international institutions, government bodies, or reputable news reporting.
- the named outcome: Resolves YES if the World Health Organization (WHO) formally declares a global pandemic or Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) for a pathogen that leads to widespread global travel restrictions or global reported mortality exceeding 1 million deaths during the 2030s.
- the named outcome: Resolves YES if major independent governance tracking organizations (e.g., Freedom House or the V-Dem Institute) classify all sovereign nations worldwide as non-democratic or authoritarian.
- the named outcome: Resolves YES if major AI research organizations or professional bodies (e.g., OpenAI, Anthropic, Google DeepMind, or AAAI) formally announce or reach scientific consensus that a system meets an established operational definition of AGI.