Aktuelle Community-Prognose
Nein 63.9%
Nein 63.9%Prognostiker
22
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 8 Stunden
Veraltet9. Mai 23, 20:42 UTC1. Jan. 00, 07:59 UTC
Regeln
X = btc/usd on Jan 1 2023 (16605) Y = btc/usd on Jan 1 2100 Resolves PROB to 5*((Y/X)^(1/77)-1)
- If the prob would be less than zero, it resolves NO.
- If USD ceases to exist we use the successor currency at the last available exchange rate from USD to the successor currency.
- If BTC ceases to exist we use the successor currency at the last available exchange rate from btc to the successor currency.
- If USD ceases to exist without an obvious successor this resolves YES If BTC ceases to exist without an obvious successor this resolves NO
- If AI kills everyone and both cease to exist simultaneously, this uses the last available exchange rate.
