Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertWarnung zur DatenqualitätQuelldaten beeinträchtigt
Daten vom 25.10.2026, 12:46 UTC · Richtlinie pm-quality-4
Aktuelle Community-Prognose1.75T+ 100%Führend unter 8 Optionen
Prognostiker
16
Fragetyp
multiple choice
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
7d-Änderung
0.0 pts
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 13 Stunden
Veraltet25. Juni 26, 15:21 UTC31. Dez. 26, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will the news identify a 2002 SARS level outbreak event as having been caused by an open weight AI model by EOY 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill Llama 4 be fully open-weight?
Manifold MarketsWill the US government introduce any domestic restrictions on open-weight LLMs by EOY 2026?
Manifold MarketsAn open weight model beats Opus 4.7 by EOY26
Manifold MarketsWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
PolymarketWhich company has best AI model end of 2026?
PolymarketRegeln
Total parameters
- At market creation (2026-06-25), the largest open weight model is DeepSeek V4 by DeepSeek, with 1.6T total parameters.
- This market will only consider models that are "pretty good", and will exclude exceedingly large but useless models.
- For example, someone initializing 100T weights at random and uploading the weights online would not count for the purpose of this market.
