Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-Prognose
Nein 97%
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Prognose
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Aktualisiert vor 8 Stunden
Veraltet3. Apr. 23, 03:03 UTC3. Apr. 28, 06:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Which states will report local cases in the May 2026 Ebola Bundibugyo outbreak
Manifold MarketsWill the news identify a 2002 SARS level outbreak event as having been caused by an open weight AI model by EOY 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill my resolution of the COVID-19 lab leak market be controversial?
Manifold MarketsWhich countries will report an Ebola disease case before October?
KalshiWhich countries will have an Ebola case in 2026?
PolymarketEbola pandemic in 2026?
PolymarketRegeln
On twitter, some scientists are claiming that genetic evidence indicates the 2021 Ebola outbreak was likely caused by a lab leak.
- Others are calling these claims unserious.
- I possess neither the biological expertise nor the knowledge of the particulars here to have an informed opinion, though I'd expect that more likely than not, within 5 years we'll have pretty good evidence one way or the other.
- I'll resolve this market in 5 years based on what the general consensus of good-faith domain experts seems to be (if they lean one way, I'll resolve in the direction they lean).
- If it appears to be a toss-up, I'll resolve it to N/A.
Offene Märkte
Health & MedicinePOLYMARKETHantavirus pandemic in 2026?
- No97%
- Yes3%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 15,6 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 11.643,5 €
POLYMARKETNew pandemic in 2026?
- No-1.0pt93.1%
- Yes+1.0pt6.9%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 920.957,6 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 4657,4 €
POLYMARKETMeasles cases in U.S. in 2026?
- ↑3.5k100%
- ↑500+0.1pt100%
- ↑1k+0.1pt100%
+9 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
KALSHIMedtronic cardiovascular growth in Q2
- Above 8%92%
- Above 9%81%
- Above 11%45%
+6 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 2610,9 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 1423,4 €
KALSHIMeasles cases in 2026?
- Above 300099%
- Above 400097%
- Above 6000-1.0pt60%
+2 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 869.070,9 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 1312,9 €
KALSHIPandemic in 2026?
- No95%
- Yes5%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 612.821,5 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 1144,8 €
- When will Beam Therapeutics submit a BLA for Risto-cel?
- Cyclosporiasis cases reported in the US in 2026?
- Measles cases in U.S. by September 30?
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- Will the FDA approve retatrutide?
- What will the average number of measles cases be during Trump's term?
- When will the FDA approve Intellia Therapeutics' lonvo-z?
- Will WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- When will Heidi Overton be confirmed as Commissioner of the FDA?
- How many West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases will be reported among New York City residents in 2026?
- Will the FDA approve cytisinicline for smoking cessation?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Was the 2021 Ebola outbreak caused by a lab leak??
- Manifold Markets bewertet No mit 97% (Stand: 10. September 2026).
- Wann wird Was the 2021 Ebola outbreak caused by a lab leak? entschieden?
- Was the 2021 Ebola outbreak caused by a lab leak? soll am 3. April 2028 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Was the 2021 Ebola outbreak caused by a lab leak? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: On twitter, some scientists are claiming that genetic evidence indicates the 2021 Ebola outbreak was likely caused by a lab leak.