Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 66.8%
Prognostiker
10
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 4 Stunden
Veraltet6. Jan. 26, 00:52 UTC1. Jan. 27, 07:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Susie Wiles out as White House Chief of Staff by December 31?
PolymarketUS Govt Sanctions Keir Starmer chief of staff?
Manifold MarketsWill Seattle Seahawks visit the White House in 2026?
PolymarketWill the 2026 Pro Football champs visit the White House?
KalshiWho will visit the White House in 2026?
KalshiWho will attend a White House Press Briefing in 2026?
KalshiRegeln
Part of Matt Yglesias' "Predictions for 2026" from his Slow Boring newsletter.
- Source: [Predictions for 2026](https://www.slowboring.com/i/181456375/predictions-for) Yglesias assigned 80% probability to this prediction.
- Original prediction: "Susie Wiles departs as White House chief of staff" Resolution: Will resolve based on Yglesias' own assessment in his January 2027 review post.
- If he doesn't publish one, market creator will resolve based on the outcome.
Offene Märkte
US PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 605,7 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 695.731,8 €
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 603,2 Mio. €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-2.4pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.3%
- September 30-4.0pt12.1%
+17 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKET$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- $10M+9.8pt96%
- $25M+15.5pt94%
- $50M+31.5pt86%
+4 weitere Ergebnisse
KALSHIWhich party will win the U.S. House?
- Democratic Party84.2%
- Republican Party15.8%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 24,3 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 294.676,9 €
KALSHI2028 Republican presidential nominee
- J.D. Vance44.7%
- Marco Rubio20.4%
- Ron DeSantis3.9%
+35 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 54,7 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 291.319,2 €
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
- Which party will win the House in 2026?
- Trump renames New Mexico to New America by which date?
- Will the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- Trump out as President by September 30?
- Rhode Island Democratic Governor nominee?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Susie Wiles departs as White House chief of staff in 2026??
- Manifold Markets bewertet No mit 67% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird Susie Wiles departs as White House chief of staff in 2026? entschieden?
- Susie Wiles departs as White House chief of staff in 2026? soll am 1. Januar 2027 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Susie Wiles departs as White House chief of staff in 2026? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: Part of Matt Yglesias' "Predictions for 2026" from his Slow Boring newsletter.