Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für SHA-256 broken by quantum computer before 2030?

Manifold Markets bewertet No mit 95.2% (Stand: 20. Oktober 2026).

Wann wird SHA-256 broken by quantum computer before 2030 entschieden?

SHA-256 broken by quantum computer before 2030 soll am 31. Dezember 2029 entschieden werden.

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Aktualisiert vor 26 Minuten

10. Dez. 24, 14:59 UTC31. Dez. 29, 00:00 UTC

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This market resolves YES if a quantum computer successfully breaks SHA-256 encryption before January 1, 2030.

Resolution will be based on peer-reviewed research papers or official announcements from major quantum computing companies/research institutions confirming a successful break of SHA-256.
Resolution criteria:
Must be a verified, reproducible break of the full SHA-256 algorithm
Must be practically demonstrated, not just theoretical
Must be confirmed by multiple independent sources in the cryptography community