Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenGut kalibriertWarnung zur DatenqualitätVeraltete Daten
Daten vom 19.07.2026, 13:30 UTC · Richtlinie pm-quality-3
Aktuelle Community-Prognose≥$0.6T 100%Führend unter 10 Optionen
Prognostiker
11
Fragetyp
multiple choice
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 8 Tagen
Veraltet22. Apr. 26, 3:491. Okt. 26, 3:59
Trends
Nur virtuelles Guthaben – kein echtes GeldKeine Finanzberatung
Gewähltes Ergebnis
≥$0.9T70%
Plattformen vergleichen· ≥$0.6T
Sortiert nach Marktqualität, dann Liquidität und 24-h-Volumen| Plattform | Qualität | Wahrscheinlichkeit | vs. Referenz | 24h Vol | Liq | Aktualität | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 PolymarketBeste insgesamt82% Übereinstimmung · geprüft | Mittel | 73% | — | 2343,9 € | 120.083,4 € | vor 15 Minuten | Öffnen → |
| Manifold MarketsDiese Seite | — | 100% | — | — | — | vor 8 Tagen |
Auch verfügbar auf Polymarket
Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
1.6 pts5Mon
73%
-1.5pt63%
52%
+12 weitere Ergebnisse
73 • Mittlere QualitätEnger SpreadHohe LiquiditätHohe Mehrdeutigkeit
Gesamtvolumen820.089,2 €
24h-Volumen2343,9 €
POLYMARKETRegeln
Resolves each threshold based on the peak valuation for OpenAI credibly reported with an as-of date on or before 2026-09-30.
- Pre-IPO: valuation is set by primary funding rounds, tender offers, or IPO pricing.
- Secondary transactions between existing investors do not count — they reflect individual trades, not company-endorsed valuation events.
- Post-IPO: valuation = peak market cap between IPO and 2026-09-30 (highest closing share price × shares outstanding at that time).
- ≥$X resolves YES as soon as such a figure meets or exceeds $X; remaining thresholds resolve NO at close.
- Company announcements; SEC filings (S-1, 424B, 10-Q, 10-K); major financial press (The Information, Bloomberg, Reuters, WSJ).
Wahrscheinlichkeiten können aufgrund unterschiedlicher Marktstrukturen, Gebühren und Teilnehmerpools abweichen.
Volumentrend
$4318. Juli2T Daten19. Juli
Verwandte Märkte
SpaceX highest valuation by end of September 2027
193,4 €≥$2T: 100%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETSSpaceX highest valuation by end of December 2026
175,8 €≥$1T: 100%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETSSpaceX highest valuation by end of March 2027
151 €≥$1.5T: 100%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETS
Anthropic IPO by __?
14.168,3 €December 31,: 71%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
2605,1 €Before Sep 1, 2026: 5%
KALSHI
KALSHI
When will OpenAI officially announce an IPO?
1874,8 €Before Dec 1, 2026: 15%KALSHI
KALSHIIn diesen Themen aktiv
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Resolves each threshold based on the peak valuation for OpenAI credibly reported with an as-of date on or before 2026-09-30.
- Pre-IPO: valuation is set by primary funding rounds, tender offers, or IPO pricing.
- Secondary transactions between existing investors do not count — they reflect individual trades, not company-endorsed valuation events.
- Post-IPO: valuation = peak market cap between IPO and 2026-09-30 (highest closing share price × shares outstanding at that time).
- ≥$X resolves YES as soon as such a figure meets or exceeds $X; remaining thresholds resolve NO at close.
- Company announcements; SEC filings (S-1, 424B, 10-Q, 10-K); major financial press (The Information, Bloomberg, Reuters, WSJ).