[Metaculus] Will 10-day out weather forecasting reach 60% accuracy before 2029?
CustomWetterWissenschaft2J
Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseJa 94.6%
Prognostiker
13
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 9 Minuten
15. Okt. 23, 17:13 UTC2. Jan. 29, 18:00 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will 10-day out weather forecasting reach 60% accuracy before 2029?
Manifold MarketsWhen will 14-day weather forecasts reach 60% accuracy?
Manifold MarketsWill the US break its record for billion-dollar weather and climate disasters in 2026?
PolymarketWill the NWS stop providing weather forecasts before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill someone manipulate the weather to manipulate a weather market?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a major hurricane landfall within 50 miles of Escambia, Florida in 2026? (tropical cyclone) (storm) (weather)?
ForecastExRegeln
Will 10-day out weather forecasting reach 60% accuracy before 2029?
- Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
- Resolution criteria
- This question will resolve as Yes if, before 2029, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) reports that the day 10 forecast for 500 hPa height has reached an anomaly correlation coefficient of 60% or greater for either the Northern Hemisphere or Southern Hemisphere, using the 12-month running mean.
- This market is managed by a bot.
- Once the original question resolves this market should automatically resolve the next time the bot is run.
