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[Metaculus] Will 10-day out weather forecasting reach 60% accuracy before 2029?
CustomWeatherWissenschaft2J
Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-Prognose
Ja 77.6%
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11
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Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
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Aktualisiert vor 14 Stunden
Veraltet15. Okt. 23, 17:13 UTC2. Jan. 29, 18:00 UTC
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Will 10-day out weather forecasting reach 60% accuracy before 2029?
- Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
- Resolution criteria
- This question will resolve as Yes if, before 2029, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) reports that the day 10 forecast for 500 hPa height has reached an anomaly correlation coefficient of 60% or greater for either the Northern Hemisphere or Southern Hemisphere, using the 12-month running mean.
- This market is managed by a bot.
- Once the original question resolves this market should automatically resolve the next time the bot is run.
Offene Märkte
Weather
KALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 8, 2026?
- 90° or above+68.0pt95.2%
- 88° to 89°-22.0pt1%
- 84° to 85°-8.0pt1%
+3 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 586.176 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 568.367,7 €
KALSHIWhere will it rain on Sep 8, 2026?
- New Orleans+48.0pt99%
- Houston+70.0pt99%
- Minneapolis+17.0pt99%
+19 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
KALSHIHighest temperature in New York City on Sep 8, 2026?
- 80° to 81°+53.0pt95.2%
- 79° or below-3.0pt1%
- 82° to 83°-44.0pt1%
+3 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
KALSHIHighest temperature in Austin on Sep 8, 2026?
- 102° to 103°+55.0pt95.2%
- 100° to 101°-47.0pt1%
- 98° to 99°-9.0pt1%
+3 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
KALSHIHighest temperature in Miami on Sep 8, 2026?
- 92° to 93°+47.0pt95.2%
- 90° to 91°-34.0pt1%
- 88° to 89°-6.0pt1%
+3 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
FORECASTEXWill the highest temperature in Los Angeles (LA)(LAX)(KLAX) exceed 85 F on September 8, 2026?
- Yes86%
- No14%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 108.240,4 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 108.240,4 €
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- Highest temperature in San Francisco on Sep 8, 2026?
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- Highest temperature in Houston on Sep 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Minneapolis on Sep 8, 2026?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für [Metaculus] Will 10-day out weather forecasting reach 60% accuracy before 2029??
- Manifold Markets bewertet Yes mit 78% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird [Metaculus] Will 10-day out weather forecasting reach 60% accuracy before 2029? entschieden?
- [Metaculus] Will 10-day out weather forecasting reach 60% accuracy before 2029? soll am 2. Januar 2029 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird [Metaculus] Will 10-day out weather forecasting reach 60% accuracy before 2029? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: Will 10-day out weather forecasting reach 60% accuracy before 2029?