Aktuelle Community-Prognose
Nein 79.4%
Prognostiker
12
Fragetyp
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Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 17 Stunden
Veraltet2. Juli 26, 17:36 UTC31. Dez. 30, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will someone manipulate a fire market?
Manifold MarketsWill the US break its record for billion-dollar weather and climate disasters in 2026?
PolymarketWill the NWS stop providing weather forecasts before 2027?
Manifold Markets[Metaculus] Will 10-day out weather forecasting reach 60% accuracy before 2029?
Manifold MarketsWill 10-day out weather forecasting reach 60% accuracy before 2029?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a major hurricane landfall within 50 miles of Escambia, Florida in 2026? (tropical cyclone) (storm) (weather)?
ForecastExRegeln
A weather market includes weather futures, markets on snow, rain, temperature in a city.
- Things that would count: geoengineering, earthworks, reforestation
- An entity must manipulate the weather itself.
- The manipulation must have some reasonable intent of manipulating the prediction market.
- Manipulating a weather measurement device with false measurements does not count.
- However, manipulating a measurement device with real weather changes does count.
