Aktuelle Community-Prognose
Before 2026-12-16 74.3%Führend unter 7 Optionen
Prognostiker
3
Fragetyp
multiple choice
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
7d-Änderung
0.0 pts
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 11 Stunden
Veraltet31. Aug. 26, 14:57 UTC16. Dez. 26, 04:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Regeln
The '+' means any version at or above K3.1 counts: if Moonshot skips K3.1 and releases Kimi K3.2 or Kimi K4, that still counts for the purpose of this market.
- Minor changes to the name, or other names for a model generally expected to be called Kimi K3.1, will also count.
- The model must be accessible without individual vetting or invitation — free or paid, via API or product.
- Open, non-selective waitlists count.
- Closed betas, invite-only access, researcher programs, A/B tests, and anonymous benchmark appearances do not.
- Country-level bans do not prevent resolution.
Offene Märkte
AI
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-2.0pt58%
- ChatGPT-3.3pt21%
- Grok+0.6pt8%
+5 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 9,2 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 93.577,5 €
POLYMARKETAI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- 2027+7.5pt76%
- 2026+27.5pt48%
- September 30, 2026+10.0pt19%
KALSHIWhat will Spotify CEO say during Goldman Sachs Communacopia?
- Anthropic / Claude+27.0pt99%
- Video+27.0pt99%
- Royalty / Licensing+63.0pt99%
+14 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETBest Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Alibaba-3.0pt69.7%
- Moonshot-1.0pt25.3%
- Z.ai+1.8pt3%
+8 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+1.5pt89%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,-1.0pt84%
+7 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
KALSHITencent market share this week
- Above 4.1%+8.0pt99%
- Above 3.7%+1.0pt99%
- Above 2.2%99%
+6 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 45.174,8 €
- What will Macy's say during their next earnings call?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic market share this week
- OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Which Millennium Prize Problem will AI solve next?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- OpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- OpenAI market share this week
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Kimi K3.1+ (Moonshot) release date?
- Manifold Markets bewertet Before 2026-12-16 mit 74% (Stand: 10. September 2026).
- Wann wird Kimi K3.1+ (Moonshot) release date entschieden?
- Kimi K3.1+ (Moonshot) release date soll am 16. Dezember 2026 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Kimi K3.1+ (Moonshot) release date abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: The '+' means any version at or above K3.1 counts: if Moonshot skips K3.1 and releases Kimi K3.2 or Kimi K4, that still counts for the purpose of this market.