Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 84.8%
Prognostiker
7
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 31 Minuten
18. Juni 25, 15:14 UTC31. Dez. 32, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Conditional on regime change in Russia, will Putin be executed or assassinated before 2034?
Manifold MarketsIf Trump is elected, will the US still be a liberal democracy at the end of his term? (V-DEM)
Manifold MarketsCapitalism and liberal democracy are going to be doing fine (or well) in 2030
Manifold MarketsWill the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
PolymarketWill the Iranian regime fall by October 31?
PolymarketWill the Iranian regime fall by June 30, 2027?
PolymarketRegeln
Resolution Criteria
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by December 31, 2032, Iran is recognized as a liberal democracy.
- If there is no regime change before 2027, resolves N/A. Resolution will be based on the Freedom House classification, and Free or Partially Free both count.
- If the classification changes or is not published, I will choose a similar report.
