Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-Prognose
6. Trump wins in 2024, opposition candidate wins in 2028 and assumes office 43.5%Führend unter 9 Optionen
6. Trump wins in 2024, opposition candidate wins in 2028 and assumes office 43.5%Prognostiker
126
Fragetyp
multiple choice
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Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
7d-Änderung
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Aktualisiert vor 27 Minuten
10. Juni 24, 02:47 UTC31. Jan. 29, 07:59 UTC
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In the light of the events of Jan 6, there are some fears that if Trump wins in 2024, the next election cycle in the US will be influenced by him.
- In this market I'm trying to explore different possible scenarios.
- The answers for the question are designed to a) be mutually exclusive, and b) cover all possible scenarios.
- In case I've missed some possibilities, please let me know in the comments, and I'll add respective options (hence the "Other").
- In case there's any disagreement the first answer that matches the events wins.
- Clarification regarding what counts as "opposition": If the election happens, Trump is still active, but doesn't endorse any candidate, then I'll count him as implicitly endorsing the republican candidate, UNLESS he completely breaks any ties with GOP in which case I will count GOP candidate as opposition.
