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Veraltet21. Juli 24, 13:42 UTC1. Jan. 28, 22:59 UTC
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If Trump is elected, will there be a ceasefire in Ukraine before the 2026 midterms?
Manifold MarketsConditional on Trump elected, will there be more wildfire acreage burnt in California in 2024-2028 than in 2020-2024?
Manifold MarketsWill there be any tax on unrealized capital gains in the USA before eoy2028?
Manifold MarketsIf Trump is elected in 2024, he finish his second term?
Manifold MarketsFed Decision in October?
PolymarketWhich party will win the House in 2026?
PolymarketRegeln
Trump has promised no tax on tips, saying it will be "first thing in office"^1.
- It is also part of the republican party platform^2.
- If Trump is elected, will there be no tax on tips by 1st Jan 2028? It doesn't have to be 100% no tax ever paid on any tip but I will resolve according to my wisdom.
- Something like this heuristic: if I go to America to randomish place, and do my normal stuff and pay tips, will at least 70% of instances go lawfully untaxed.
- If Trump is not elected, resolves N/A. 1. https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-features/trump-plan-end-taxes-tips-skepticism-1235062544/ 2. https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/documents/2024-republican-party-platform
