If Democrats win the Senate in 2026, will the Senate confirm a new Supreme Court justice before January 3, 2029?
PolitikOne-OffUS-PolitikWahl2J
Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 89.4%
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Veraltet7. Okt. 26, 02:05 UTC3. Jan. 29, 17:00 UTC
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Condition: Democrats control the U.S. Senate when the 120th Congress convenes on January 3, 2027: Democratic senators plus independents who caucus with them hold at least 51 seats (a 50–50 Senate is Republican control because the Vice President is a Republican).
- Otherwise this market resolves N/A. Resolves YES if the U.S. Senate votes to confirm a nominee to the Supreme Court of the United States between January 3, 2027 and January 3, 2029 (inclusive), for any seat including Chief Justice.
- Resolves NO otherwise.
- This is one half of a conditional pair; its twin asks the same question if Republicans keep the Senate.
- Comparing the two shows what the market thinks control of the Senate changes.
