Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognosePrinceton Puzzle Hunt 95%Führend unter 9 Optionen
Prognostiker
5
Fragetyp
multiple choice
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
7d-Änderung
0.0 pts
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 19 Stunden
Veraltet27. Jan. 26, 20:53 UTC1. Jan. 27, 07:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
What day will I next log on to manifold markets in 2026*? See description.
Manifold MarketsWill non-EU cities catch up in terms of quality of life by 2035? [see description]
Manifold MarketsWill there be a presidential election in Ukraine, before a ceasefire between it and Russia occurs? (See description)
Manifold MarketsTime between AI winning IMO gold medal and AI winning IMO grand challenge (see description)
Manifold MarketsBitcoin price at the end of 2026
KalshiBTC price on Oct 30, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
KalshiRegeln
Resolves to 100% if I get 1st in a hunt, 0% if I am not in the top 20.
- Otherwise, 5*(21-place)%.
- I'll add hunts throughout the year as they are announced if I intend to participate in them.
- N/A if a hunt added doesn't run for some reason, or makes it impossible to determine a ranking.
- (Even if there aren't leaderboards, I'll try to find a ranking if, say, there are per-puzzle stats for the endgame puzzle.)
- [Added Feb 20:] Also N/A if I end up not doing a hunt due to some unforeseen event (e.g. some higher priority thing happens)
