Circuit-level appeal of a dismissal of a microplastics case on the merits (preemption, causation, pleadings) byEOY2028?
RegulierungOne-OffKriminalität & Justiz2JManifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertWarnung zur DatenqualitätQuelldaten beeinträchtigt
Daten vom 26.10.2026, 06:50 UTC · Richtlinie pm-quality-4
Aktuelle Community-PrognoseJa 57.4%
Prognostiker
2
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 9 Stunden
Veraltet24. Apr. 26, 07:44 UTC31. Dez. 28, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Circuit-level ruling on a bodily-injury microplastics case (as opposed to consumer protection / greenwashing) by EOY2028
Manifold MarketsFederal AI preemption passes by January 3, 2027?
Manifold MarketsComey indictment reinstated on appeal before 2027?
KalshiWill Sam Bankman-Fried successfully appeal any of his convictions or sentence?
Manifold MarketsWill the CCRC refer Lucy Letby's case to the Court of Appeal?
Manifold MarketsWill the Ninth Circuit allow Kalshi's sports contracts in 2026?
PredictItRegeln
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to "YES" if a United States Court of Appeals issues a ruling on the merits regarding the dismissal of a civil lawsuit concerning microplastics by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2028.
- To count as a "ruling on the merits," the appellate court must issue a written opinion or memorandum order affirming, reversing, or vacating a lower court’s dismissal based on arguments involving federal preemption, causation, or the sufficiency of the pleadings (e.g., failure to state a claim under Rule 12(b)(6)).
- The market resolves "NO" if no such appellate ruling is issued by the deadline.
- This market will be resolved based on filings available via PACER (Public Access to Court Electronic Records) or official dockets maintained by the relevant U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals.
- If the case is settled, withdrawn, or dismissed on procedural grounds unrelated to the merits before an appellate ruling is reached, the market will resolve "NO".
