Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertWarnung zur DatenqualitätQuelldaten beeinträchtigt
Daten vom 25.10.2026, 05:50 UTC · Richtlinie pm-quality-4
Aktuelle Community-PrognoseJa 56.5%
Prognostiker
14
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 17 Stunden
Veraltet1. Jan. 26, 03:31 UTC31. Dez. 26, 15:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Assuming the world population declines, where will it stop?
Manifold MarketsBefore which quarters will Canada's population exceed 42 million?
Manifold MarketsChicago tax revenue declines three years in a row due to flight from the city.
Manifold MarketsCanada's population Up or Down this year?
PolymarketWill the S&P finish positive this year?
KalshiTexas ERCOT peak electricity demand on Oct 25, 2026
KalshiRegeln
Resolution criteria
- Statistics Canada officially projects 0.3% population growth in 2025, to be followed by negative 0.2% in 2026.
- The market resolves YES if Canada's total population on December 31, 2026 is lower than on January 1, 2026.
- Resolution will be determined by official Statistics Canada population estimates, available at Statistics Canada's population estimates page.
- Jan 1 2026: 41,548,511
- The government's 2025–2027 immigration plan proposes a substantial reduction of admissions of new permanent residents and a decrease in the number of non-permanent residents living in the country, with the goal of pausing population growth in the short term.