At the beginning of 2030, what percentage of Manifold users will believe that an AI intelligence explosion is a significant concern before 2075?
One-OffKI3J
Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertWarnung zur DatenqualitätVeraltete Daten
Daten vom 19.10.2026, 19:50 UTC · Richtlinie pm-quality-4
Aktuelle Community-PrognoseJa 73.2%
Prognostiker
8
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert gestern
Veraltet17. Nov. 22, 21:15 UTC1. Jan. 30, 05:00 UTC
Trends
Regeln
If an intelligence explosion occurs, this market resolves N/A. Otherwise:
- Shortly after market close, I will post a Yes/No poll in this market's comments, in the Manifold discord, and/or in whatever other appropriate Manifold-related spaces exist at that time.
- It will ask:
- Do you believe that a rapid AI intelligence explosion poses a significant existential risk to humanity before 2075?
- This market resolves to the percentage of Yes votes in the poll, rounded to the nearest integer.
- The poll will be limited to one response per Manifold account, and the way everyone voted will be public.
