Arbitrage opportunity between Kalshi and Polymarket on Gavin Newsom as 2028 Democratic nominee disappears by:
PolitikOne-OffUS PoliticsWahl12MonManifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseSeptember 15, 2027 86.2%Führend unter 4 Optionen
Prognostiker
12
Fragetyp
multiple choice
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
7d-Änderung
+36.2 pts
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 6 Stunden
Veraltet15. Sept. 26, 19:37 UTC16. Sept. 27, 23:59 UTC
Trends
0%
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Who will become the next governor of California after Gavin Newsom?
Manifold MarketsWill Gavin Newsom ever become the Democratic nominee for president?
Manifold MarketsWill Gavin Newsom be the favorite for Democratic Nominee on Dec. 31, 2026? [Per Polymarket Data]
Manifold MarketsWill Gavin Newsom announce Presidential run by which date?
PolymarketWhen will Gavin Newsom announce his presidential candidacy?
KalshiGavin Newsom or his wife federally charged by December 31, 2026?
PolymarketRegeln
As of market creation, Gavin Newsom as Democratic nominee is trading for 18% on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/democratic-presidential-nominee-2028
- And 13% on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxpresnomd/democratic-primary-winner/kxpresnomd-28
- An option in this market resolves yes if the price differential between the two sites closes to 1% or less, by the date listed.
- If a price differential > 1% develops in the opposite direction between the two sites, that is also sufficient for resolution yes.
- If one option in this market resolves yes, all subsequent options will also resolve yes at that point in time.
- Time for resolution will be midnight in pacific time on the specified date (i.e. at the very beginning of the day, not the end).
Offene Märkte
PoliticsPOLYMARKETDemocratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-0.5pt18%
- Jon Ossoff16%
- Gavin Newsom-0.7pt15%
+48 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 1,1 Mrd. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 1,8 Mio. €
POLYMARKETVenezuela leader end of 2026?
- Delcy Rodríguez+44.0pt57.4%
- Nicolás Maduro-40.9pt41.6%
- No Head of State-0.1pt1%
+13 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance51%
- Marco Rubio+0.1pt16%
- Ron DeSantis3%
+39 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 615,5 Mio. €
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff+1.0pt17.9%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez+1.0pt16.8%
- Gavin Newsom-1.0pt13.7%
+45 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
KALSHI2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
- Democrats sweep-1.0pt58.6%
- D-House, R-Senate+1.0pt30.3%
- Republicans sweep-0.2pt10.1%
+1 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+21 weitere Ergebnisse
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- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Trump out as President by September 30?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Which party will win the House in 2026?
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by which date?
- Next French Presidential Election
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- Los Angeles Mayor winner?
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Arbitrage opportunity between Kalshi and Polymarket on Gavin Newsom as 2028 Democratic nominee disappears by:?
- Manifold Markets bewertet September 15, 2027 mit 86% (Stand: 20. September 2026).
- Wann wird Arbitrage opportunity between Kalshi and Polymarket on Gavin Newsom as 2028 Democratic nominee disappears by: entschieden?
- Arbitrage opportunity between Kalshi and Polymarket on Gavin Newsom as 2028 Democratic nominee disappears by: soll am 16. September 2027 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Arbitrage opportunity between Kalshi and Polymarket on Gavin Newsom as 2028 Democratic nominee disappears by: abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: As of market creation, Gavin Newsom as Democratic nominee is trading for 18% on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/democratic-presidential-nominee-2028