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Play-money forecasting platform
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Aktualisiert vor 13 Stunden
Veraltet23. Sept. 25, 01:52 UTC31. Dez. 26, 23:59 UTC
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Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Superhuman mathematical problem solving before 2030, assuming no AGI yet?
Manifold MarketsSuperhuman mathematical problem solving before 2030, assuming no AGI yet?
Manifold MarketsWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
PolymarketWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
PolymarketBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiWhich company has best AI model end of 2026?
PolymarketRegeln
https://joeandseth.substack.com/p/prompt-writing-outsourcing-cognition
- Resolution criteria
- Resolves YES if, by 23:59:59 UTC on December 31, 2026, there is at least one publicly released empirical study with n > 1000 human participants that reports a statistically significant reduction in unassisted problem-solving performance for “heavy AI users” (as defined by the study: e.g., top-quantile usage logs, assigned heavy-use condition, or clearly specified frequent-use threshold) compared to lighter/non-users or to their own baseline when AI is not allowed during the outcome assessment (p < 0.05 or 95% CI excluding zero).
- “Unassisted problem-solving” = tasks completed without AI access at test time (e.g., proctored exams, reasoning/problem-solving assessments where AI tools are prohibited).
- n > 1000 refers to unique participants analyzed (not number of items/tasks/observations).
- Multi-site replications may aggregate across identical protocols if the combined participant count exceeds 1000.
Offene Märkte
AIKALSHIWhat will Trump say during his United Nations meetings?
- Fentanyl99%
- Zelensky99%
- Cartel99%
+38 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 369.513,3 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 367.993,1 €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.3pt69.3%
- ChatGPT-0.3pt13.9%
- Gemini+0.1pt7.9%
+5 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 10,4 Mio. €
POLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic-0.3pt99%
- OpenAI+0.3pt1%
- Meta-0.1pt0%
+18 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETTrump renames AI by September 30?
- No-24.0pt68.3%
- Yes+24.0pt31.7%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 89.286,3 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 79.380,7 €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,79%
- December 15,+1.0pt75%
- November 30,57%
+7 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 3,3 Mio. €
POLYMARKETAnthropic lab leak by which date?
- June 30, 2027-4.0pt7%
- December 31, 20264%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 85.523,3 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 64.448,2 €
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Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Any study (n>1000) shows reduction in unassisted problem-solving among heavy AI users by end 2026??
- Manifold Markets bewertet No mit 61% (Stand: 22. September 2026).
- Wann wird Any study (n>1000) shows reduction in unassisted problem-solving among heavy AI users by end 2026? entschieden?
- Any study (n>1000) shows reduction in unassisted problem-solving among heavy AI users by end 2026? soll am 31. Dezember 2026 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Any study (n>1000) shows reduction in unassisted problem-solving among heavy AI users by end 2026? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: https://joeandseth.substack.com/p/prompt-writing-outsourcing-cognition