Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenGut kalibriertAktuelle Community-Prognose
X = 5 100%Führend unter 13 Optionen
X = 5 100%Prognostiker
22
Fragetyp
multiple choice
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
7d-Änderung
0.0 pts
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 16 Stunden
Veraltet15. Jan. 24, 16:54 UTC31. Dez. 27, 18:29 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
AI resolves at least X% on SWE-bench without any assistance, by 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill an autonomous agent resolve 90% of tasks on SWE-bench by 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill Claude Sonnet 5 exceed 85% on SWE-bench verified?
Manifold MarketsWhen will SWE-bench be solved?
Manifold MarketsWho is Dwarkesh's upcoming "biggest guest yet"?
Manifold MarketsAnthropic announces bankruptcy by which date?
PolymarketRegeln
Currently the SOTA has 4.80% resolves "with assistance":
- [image]For the unassisted leaderboard, please refer to the following market:
- (https://manifold.markets/embed/firstuserhere/ai-resolves-at-least-x-on-swebench)Leaderboard live:
- (https://www.swebench.com/)
