Aktuelle Community-Prognose
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Aktualisiert vor 9 Stunden
Veraltet8. März 24, 04:51 UTC2. Jan. 27, 07:59 UTC
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Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will there be any simple text-based task that most humans can solve, but top LLMs can't? By the end of 2026
Manifold MarketsWill an AI system capable of doing 50% of knowledge job arrive by 2027?
Manifold MarketsWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
PolymarketBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
PolymarketWhich company has best AI model end of 2026?
PolymarketRegeln
This market made in response to this article.
- One-hour AGI: Beating humans at problem sets/exams, composing short articles or blog posts, executing most tasks in white-collar jobs (e.g., diagnosing patients, providing legal opinions), conducting therapy, etc. One-day AGI: Beating humans at negotiating business deals, developing new apps, running scientific experiments, reviewing scientific papers, summarizing books, etc. One-month AGI: Beating humans at carrying out medium-term plans coherently (e.g., founding a startup), supervising large projects, becoming proficient in new fields, writing large software applications (e.g., a new operating system), making novel scientific discoveries, etc. One-year AGI: These AIs would beat humans at basically everything.
- Mainly because most projects can be divided into sub-tasks that can be completed in shorter timeframes.
Offene Märkte
AIKALSHIWhat will Trump say during his United Nations meetings?
- Fentanyl99%
- Zelensky99%
- Cartel99%
+38 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 369.513,3 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 367.993,1 €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.3pt69.3%
- ChatGPT-0.3pt13.9%
- Gemini+0.1pt7.9%
+5 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 10,4 Mio. €
POLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic-0.3pt99%
- OpenAI+0.3pt1%
- Meta-0.1pt0%
+18 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETTrump renames AI by September 30?
- No-24.0pt68.3%
- Yes+24.0pt31.7%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 89.286,3 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 79.380,7 €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,79%
- December 15,+1.0pt75%
- November 30,57%
+7 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 3,3 Mio. €
POLYMARKETAnthropic lab leak by which date?
- June 30, 2027-4.0pt7%
- December 31, 20264%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 85.523,3 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 64.448,2 €
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Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für 1-hour AGI. A system capable of any computer-based task a human can do in 1 hour will be developed by end of 2026.?
- Manifold Markets bewertet No mit 70.1% (Stand: 22. September 2026).
- Wann wird 1-hour AGI. A system capable of any computer-based task a human can do in 1 hour will be developed by end of 2026. entschieden?
- 1-hour AGI. A system capable of any computer-based task a human can do in 1 hour will be developed by end of 2026. soll am 2. Januar 2027 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird 1-hour AGI. A system capable of any computer-based task a human can do in 1 hour will be developed by end of 2026. abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: This market made in response to this article.