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Daten vom 17.10.2026, 22:20 UTC · Richtlinie pm-quality-4
Aktuelle implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit
Karoline Leavitt 50%Führend unter 5 Optionen
Karoline Leavitt 50%Marktqualitat
22 / 100
Niedrige Qualität24h-Volumen
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Liquidität
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Liquidität unbekanntMarktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 3 Minuten
26. Aug. 26, 14:11 UTC1. Jan. 27, 14:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will RFK Jr. have an official role in the Trump Administration at the start of 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill U.S. Under Secretary of State Sarah B. Rogers leave her role by EOY 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Katie Zacharia take another Trump administration role?
KalshiWill DeSantis have a role in Trump’s administration?
Manifold MarketsWhen will Katie Zacharia leave the role of White House Press Secretary?
FutuurWill Laura Loomer join the Trump administration in 2026?
KalshiRegeln
the named outcome · the named outcome · the named outcome · the named outcome · the named outcome.
If the named outcome leaves as Chief of Staff before 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
the named outcome must have an actual departure date by vacating the role within the time period.
If the person leaves the role due to death (i.e., if the person dies while holding the role), all contracts on the person may resolve to the last fair price as determined in the sole discretion of the Exchange.
- Temporary leaves of absence, suspensions, or recusals do not constitute leaving, resigning from, or retiring from the role unless the individual formally and permanently ceases to hold the position.
- If the person vacates the role and then re-occupies the role, the contract may settle on the initial vacation of the role.
For "leave," cessation of holding the role qualifies, including resignation, retirement, removal, expiration of term without renewal, recall, or other means by which the individual no longer occupies the role—this includes both voluntary early departure AND the natural expiration of a term.
Outcome verified from ABC News Australia, Bloomberg News, CNBC, CNN, Deutsche Welle, Financial Times, Fox News, MSNBC, official government records and registries, person, Politico, Reuters, the Associated Press, the body, agency, company, organization, or entity at which role is held, the New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, The Washington Post, and BBC.
Vergleich von Prognosequellen
- Auch verfügbar auf Polymarket — Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027? · Dan Bongino 100%
- Auch verfügbar auf Futuur — Who will leave the Trump administration in 2026? · Tulsi Gabbard 86%
- Auch verfügbar auf Manifold Markets — Who will leave their role in the Trump administration in 2026? · Susie Wiles 34%
