KalshiVerfügbarkeit prüfenKYC erforderlichVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenGut kalibriertWarnung zur DatenqualitätVeraltete DatenNicht aussagekräftig bepreist
Daten vom 06.11.2026, 12:31 UTC · Richtlinie pm-quality-4
Mittelwert des gewählten Orderbuchs
At least 1% · —
Gewähltes Orderbuch wird geladen…
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Gespeicherter Preis
At least 1% 95.5%Führend unter 8 Optionen
At least 1% 95.5%Marktqualitat
22 / 100
Niedrige Qualität24h-Volumen
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Open Interest
0 $
Open Interest unbekanntGeld / Brief
— / —
At least 1%Spread
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Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 1 Stunde
Verzogert6. Nov. 26, 00:00 UTC8. Jan. 29, 14:59 UTC
Chart und Änderungen zeigen gespeicherte historische Wahrscheinlichkeiten, nicht das gewählte aktuelle Orderbuch.
Trends
Gewählte Zeile: Orderbuch-Mittelwert. Andere Zeilen: gespeicherte, ggf. normalisierte Referenzwerte; 24h-Änderungen basieren auf gespeicherter Historie.
Handelsplatzbedingungen
Quelle: Kalshi
Diese Angaben dienen der Information; für den simulierten Handel bei CoinRithm gelten eigene Regeln.
- Vorzeitige Schließung:
- Ja
- Abrechnungsfrist:
- 30m (unverbindliche Angabe)
Markttiefe · At least 1%
Gewähltes Orderbuch wird geladen…
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Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will a third party candidate win the 2028 USA presidential election?
Manifold MarketsWill a third-party or independent candidate win any state in the 2024 or 2028 US presidential elections?
Manifold MarketsWill a third party win a federal office in the US before the end of 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill an independent or third-party candidate win a state?
KalshiWill a third party get more than 25% of the popular vote in a presidential election no later than 2040?
Manifold MarketsWhich states will join the National Popular Vote Compact?
KalshiRegeln
If the third-party share of the national popular vote for President is at least 2.5% in the 2028 U.S. presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Abwicklung über:Federal Election Commission
- Third-party votes are all votes cast for President other than votes for the Democratic nominee and the Republican nominee. They include votes for independent and minor-party candidates, write-in votes, and votes for "None of these candidates." A nominee is the candidate the Democratic Party or the Republican Party nominated for President. A nominee's votes on every ballot line are combined, including a line of another party (such as New York's Conservative and Working Families lines), and are not third-party votes. The third-party share is the third-party votes divided by the total votes cast for President in the 50 states and the District of Columbia, using the Federal Election Commission's "Official Presidential General Election Results" for the Nov 7, 2028 election: (Total Votes minus the Democratic nominee's total minus the Republican nominee's total) divided by Total Votes. Blank and spoiled ballots are not counted. Votes the report does not include, such as write-ins a state does not tally, are not added from other sources. In a state that uses ranked-choice voting, first-round votes are used. The first version of the report that the FEC publishes is used; later revisions do not count. Each state's figures are its final certified results, including a recount completed before certification. If the FEC has not published the report by expiration, the sum of the states' and the District of Columbia's final certified results is used.
Regeln für jedes Ergebnis
- At least 1%
- If the third-party share of the national popular vote for President is at least 1% in the 2028 U.S. presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 1.5%
- If the third-party share of the national popular vote for President is at least 1.5% in the 2028 U.S. presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 2%
- If the third-party share of the national popular vote for President is at least 2% in the 2028 U.S. presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 2.5%
- If the third-party share of the national popular vote for President is at least 2.5% in the 2028 U.S. presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 3%
- If the third-party share of the national popular vote for President is at least 3% in the 2028 U.S. presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 4%
- If the third-party share of the national popular vote for President is at least 4% in the 2028 U.S. presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 5%
- If the third-party share of the national popular vote for President is at least 5% in the 2028 U.S. presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 7%
- If the third-party share of the national popular vote for President is at least 7% in the 2028 U.S. presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.
