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  1. Prognosemärkte
  2. Politik
  3. Will a Russian sanctions bill become law?
Will a Russian sanctions bill become law?

Will a Russian sanctions bill become law?

One-OffPolitikGeopolitikRussia / Ukraine6Mon
KalshiKalshiVerfügbarkeit prüfenKYC erforderlich2% Gebühr
Aktuelle implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit
Ja
Ja 16%
Marktqualitat

24 / 100

Niedrige Qualität
24h-Volumen

0 €

Liquidität

13,3 €

Niedrige Liquidität
Geld / Brief

13.0% / 16.0%

Spread

23.1%

Breiter Spread
Marktdaten

Aktualisiert vor 2 Minuten

26. Dez. 25, 15:001. Jan. 27, 15:00

Trends

Ergebnis24hWahrscheinlichkeit

Gewähltes Ergebnis

Yes16%

Regeln

If a bill sanctioning Russia has become law after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • The legislation must establish new material restrictive measures explicitly targeting the Russian Federation by mandating or authorizing: (i) new primary sanctions against Russia or key economic sectors; (ii) new secondary sanctions on foreign third parties facilitating Russian trade or evasion; (iii) the seizure and transfer of blocked or immobilized Russian sovereign assets to support Ukraine; and/or (iv) the designation of Russia as a state sponsor of terrorism that triggers automatic sanctions.
  • Routine re-authorizations or technical modifications of existing programs—such as those sometimes included in the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) or appropriations bills—are excluded.
  • For "become law" markets, the bill must be signed by the President or become law through veto override.

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In diesen Themen aktiv

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Regeln

If a bill sanctioning Russia has become law after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • The legislation must establish new material restrictive measures explicitly targeting the Russian Federation by mandating or authorizing: (i) new primary sanctions against Russia or key economic sectors; (ii) new secondary sanctions on foreign third parties facilitating Russian trade or evasion; (iii) the seizure and transfer of blocked or immobilized Russian sovereign assets to support Ukraine; and/or (iv) the designation of Russia as a state sponsor of terrorism that triggers automatic sanctions.
  • Routine re-authorizations or technical modifications of existing programs—such as those sometimes included in the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) or appropriations bills—are excluded.
  • For "become law" markets, the bill must be signed by the President or become law through veto override.