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  1. Prognosemärkte
  2. Politik
  3. Los Angeles mayoral election first round: margin of victory
Los Angeles mayoral election first round: margin of victory

Los Angeles mayoral election first round: margin of victory

3.0% (24h)One-OffPolitikWahlUS Politics10Mon
KalshiKalshiVerfügbarkeit prüfenKYC erforderlich2% Gebühr
Aktuelle implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit
Karen Bass, 4-8%
Karen Bass, 4-8% 99%+3.0%
Führend unter 13 Optionen
Marktqualitat

79 / 100

Hohe Qualität
24h-Volumen

934,8 €

Liquidität

2468,5 €

Mittlere Liquidität
Geld / Brief

99.0% / 100.0%

Spread

1.0%

Enger Spread
Marktdaten

Aktualisiert vor 2 Minuten

27. Apr. 26, 19:0028. Apr. 27, 14:00

Trends

Ergebnis24hWahrscheinlichkeit

Gewähltes Ergebnis

Karen Bass, 4-8%99%

Regeln

If the margin of victory for Karen Bass in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election falls within 0% to 4%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.
  • For percentage points: the vote percentage received by Karen Bass minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Karen Bass if Karen Bass wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Karen Bass loses.
  • For raw votes: the total votes received by Karen Bass minus the total votes received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Karen Bass if Karen Bass wins, or the candidate/party/option that finishes first if Karen Bass loses.
  • For electoral votes: the electoral votes received by Karen Bass minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the second-most electoral votes if Karen Bass wins, or the electoral votes received by Karen Bass minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the most electoral votes if Karen Bass does not.
  • Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound.

Verwandte Märkte

Margin of victory in the Maine Democratic Senate primary?

Margin of victory in the Maine Democratic Senate primary?

184,9 €
Graham Platner, ≥50%: 99%KalshiKALSHI
Michigan Democratic Senate primary margin of victory?

Michigan Democratic Senate primary margin of victory?

106,7 €
Abdul El-Sayed, 6-9%: 22%KalshiKALSHI
Iowa Democratic Senate primary margin of victory?

Iowa Democratic Senate primary margin of victory?

77,6 €
Josh Turek, 20-25%: 1%KalshiKALSHI
South Carolina Republican Senate primary margin of victory?

South Carolina Republican Senate primary margin of victory?

53,4 €
Lindsey Graham, 25-30%: 98%KalshiKALSHI
South Carolina Republican Governor primary margin of victory? (1st Round)

South Carolina Republican Governor primary margin of victory? (1st Round)

46 €
Pamela Evette, 0-5%: 98%KalshiKALSHI
Maine Democratic Governor primary: margin of victory (final round)

Maine Democratic Governor primary: margin of victory (final round)

38,9 €
Shenna Bellows wins: 20%KalshiKALSHI

In diesen Themen aktiv

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Regeln

If the margin of victory for Karen Bass in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election falls within 0% to 4%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.
  • For percentage points: the vote percentage received by Karen Bass minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Karen Bass if Karen Bass wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Karen Bass loses.
  • For raw votes: the total votes received by Karen Bass minus the total votes received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Karen Bass if Karen Bass wins, or the candidate/party/option that finishes first if Karen Bass loses.
  • For electoral votes: the electoral votes received by Karen Bass minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the second-most electoral votes if Karen Bass wins, or the electoral votes received by Karen Bass minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the most electoral votes if Karen Bass does not.
  • Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound.